After reading two different posts on membership statistics in the Church of Christ (one by Alan Rouse and the other by Jay Guin) I thought I would toss my hat into the ring and crunch a few numbers. One of the problems you run into in looking at numbers like these is that it is really easy to compare apples and oranges instead of apples to apples and oranges to oranges. Another thing that is often not accounted for in these statistics is how well the membership numbers of the Church of Christ is tracking with general population growth trends of the United States at large. The following numbers are from two data sets, one from Kairos and one from US Census data.
1980 – 1,239,039 members in Churches of Christ in the U.S.
1990 – 1,280,178 members (+41,139, +3.32% increase since 1980)
- US Population growth 1980-1990 = +9.78%
- Projected CofC growth based on U.S. population growth 1980-1990 = 121,178
- Actual CofC growth 1980-1990 = 41,139 (3.32%)
- Difference = -80,039
2000 – 1,262,445 members (-17,733, -1.39% decline since 1990)
- US Population growth 1990-2000 = +13.15%
- Projected CofC growth based on U.S. population growth 1990-2000 = 168,343
- Actual CofC growth = -17,733 (-1.39%)
- Difference = -186,076
While the Church of Christ grew between 1980 and 1990 its growth is pretty weak when compared to the census figures of the country at large. The decline from 1990 to 2000 is even larger when seen in light of the enormous population growth the US had in that same period of time. Based on these numbers we are not growing in proportion to the population of the U.S. at large and need to invest heavily in domestic missions and church planting.
Filed under: Christianity, Church, Church of Christ | Tagged: census, population, united states
Good news/bad news situation. While I’d rather see 1000% growth, a 1.39% decline is not too bad when you consider the overall shift and a decreasing of the white population to the increasing Hispanic population which tends to embrace Catholicism and reject New Testament Christianity because they are so tied culturally to that religious body.
[...] Matt Dabbs joins the conversation on Church of Christ statistics here. [...]
I certainly have no problem with pouring resources into church planting etc, but I dont think that is the solution. There are plenty of Churches in many parts of the country, but few that are doing any sort of significant ministry. At least this is my observation after traveling in the states and abroad over the last several years.
We need christians, both in and out of the coC, to really start living lives of sacrificial love and quit trying to champion Christian rights, and we certainly need to put as much effort into loving our neighbor as we have in to having “right” doctrine.
Basically, if the congregations that we already have were more like the church we find in Acts 2:42 and following, then I believe we would see rapid growth of the church.
RM,
There are a couple of reasons I think church planting is healthy:
1 – Paul seemed to think so as we see in Acts.
2 – When churches get intentional about planting a church more members and ministers become mission minded.
3 – It would mean we would have to train more people which is a good thing.
4 – New sparks new growth. The problem is it can often be fleeting if not done with an eye for discipling people rather than baptizing and generating numbers.
So I think it is one part of the puzzle of what you are saying – getting Christians to start acting like Christians.
Amen to all that. I certainly believe in church planting, I just hope it is, like you said, only a piece of the puzzle.
Matt,
Statistically speaking, the best way to reach unchurched people is through new church plants. On average, a church that is older than 10 years can expect one new convert per year for every 89 members. A church that is between 3 and 7 years old averages one new convert for every 7 members. A church that is under 3 years old averages one new convert for every 3 members.
Granted, the survery data we get is all we have, but these numbers look like they are well within the margin of sampling error. I don’t think these numbers have moved nearly enough to indicate a trend one way or another.
That said, there are some numbers that might be more telling:
The average congregation size has gone up by almost 40% since 1990, from just over 80 to 112.
While our membeship totals have been relatively stable, the percentage of our members who live within 200 miles of a Bible Belt Christian College has grown from just under 60% 20 years ago to almost 70% today.
I agree that church planting might be helpful in reaching America with the gospel, especially those parts of the country where we are under-represented. But our folks seem inclined to consolidate in bigger congregations in our “home territory.”
Sadly, those who would intentionally try to build a small church on a domestic mission field fly in the face of both of these trends.
Margin of error is when you have a sample of a total population. Here we have an attempt to count the actual population. Given that and that the sample size is over 1 million the margin of error would be very small. There is not a significant swing in growth or decline but there is a statistically significant difference between the population growth trends and the growth trends in the Church of Christ.
That being said I also want to point out that these numbers are from 8 years ago and a lot can happen in 8 years. It will be interesting to see what comes out in 2010.
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION
HOW TO EVANGELIZE-USE TRACTS
LEAVE ONE AT THE STORE,RESTAURANT,ETC.
INCLUDE ONE WHEN YOU PAY YOUR BILLS
CALL GOSPEL ADVOCATE FOR TRACTS
1-800-251-8446
PASS THIS ALONG TO OTHER CHURCHS
[...] got a favorable mention in Matt Dabbs’ blog. And David P. Himes sometimes links over at Giving Yourself to [...]